Imagine that as a CCO, you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability, but to do so you would be required to expose just how unreliable the professional corporate forecasters have been. Could you do so and, more importantly, would you do so? Most generally this is the predictive capability that organizations have used. However, the new “superforecasting” movement, led by Philip E. Tetlock and others, has been gaining strength to help improve this capability.

The concepts around superforecasting came of age after the intelligence failures leading up to the Iraq War. This led to the founding of the Good Judgment Project, which had as a key component a multi-year predictive tournament, which was a series of gaming exercises pitting amateurs against professional intelligence analysts. The results of the Good Judgment Project. Today, I explain its applicability to compliance.

Three key takeaways:

  1. Imagine you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability.
  2. It is essential to track the prediction outcomes and provide timely feedback to improve forecasting going forward.
  3. Like any innovation, there must be a commitment from management on moving forward.