Immigration is argued in America as a question of borders, crime, and culture. It is really a question of labor supply, and the people most directly affected are those trying to staff a job site, a hospital floor, a kitchen, or a fabrication yard. This series makes the economic case, one argument per episode, in the language business owners already use: head count, cost base, compliance risk, and competitive position. It does not relitigate the politics. It reframes the problem as a workforce problem and ends with what an employer can actually do about it. The theme of the entire series is that America has spent forty years treating its largest economic asset as a liability, and the bill is now coming due in wages, prices, and growth.
In this episode 4, we look at the costs at the cash register for Americans. Summer 2022: chicken breast at four dollars a pound, heating bills doubling, childcare past $2,000 a month, inflation at 9.1 percent, and the most aggressive rate increases in modern history. Everyone argued about supply chains and stimulus. Almost nobody noticed that the largest labor-supply shift in decades was quietly draining pressure out of the wage-price spiral from below. Steffy explains why immigration restriction is now the most underpriced inflation risk in the economy.
Key highlights:
- Walk through the shock-absorber argument.
- Which prices does this actually move? Be specific.
- What is the risk running the other way, right now?
- Does any other country give us a control group?
- “Immigrants drive up housing costs—that’s why my rent is high.”
Soundbite:
“The Federal Reserve can control interest rates. It cannot conjure workers out of thin air.”
Close:
Watch two series over the next year: services inflation excluding housing and residential construction employment. That’s where this shows up before anyone announces it.
Resources:
Purchase Reconstructing Immigration