Tag: trade compliance

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E33: Back to Basics

As the geopolitical and national political winds continue to swirl, Mike & Brent go back to basics to level-set and provide some foundational first principles of export controls compliance. They discuss the roller-coaster of the Affiliates Rule suspension (01:44); why the real risks from a compliance and enforcement perspective lay just outside of the Rule (02:37); how General Prohibition 10, the full definition of “knowledge” to include “an awareness of a high probability,” and the various inchoate provisions (i.e., causing, aiding and abetting, solicitation and attempt, conspiracy, acting with knowledge, misrepresentation and concealment, intent to evade, and failure to comply with recordkeeping requirements) are the foundational anti-diversion provisions under the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR) (03:02); great listener feedback about how the Affiliates Rule shaped the in-house discussion of diversion risk (05:23); developing and implementing a high probability protocol as the only way to stay grounded in dynamic and challenging times (08:33); recent legislative proposals and hearings, including a recent hearing by a subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee focused on export control loopholes, and the dangers of a dissatisfied U.S. Congress (09:42); why the definition of “knowledge” under the EAR is not mere legalese to be lost in the 1,467 pages (as of January 1, 2025) of the EAR but is instead the path forward for both government and industry (14:18); the details and implications of General Prohibition 10 (17:11); the details of the full definition of “knowledge,” including what we can learn from its history in the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and, before then, the Model Penal Code (18:48); and recent enforcement activity by DOJ and BIS, and what the activity signals about the government’s next enforcement moves (22:30).

They then conclude with the latest installment of Brent’s increasingly popular “Managing Up” segment (27:14).

Resources:

Brent’s latest NYU Law School Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement post, from October 31, 2025

Brent’s email: brent@redflagsrising.com

Mike’s email: michael.huneke@morganlewis.com

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E31: Running To and Through the Export Controls Investigation Finish Line – Avoiding Resolution Pitfalls and Monitoring What Matters

Mike and Brent take a break from Affiliates Rule (delayed) suspension news to focus on practical advice for companies that may be in the midst of U.S. government investigations into alleged export control violations. They discuss the importance of engaging with the government with an awareness and an appreciation for the latest enforcement trends and signals, particularly regarding the government’s emphasis on the full definition of “knowledge” to include “an awareness of a high probability” (00:49); the importance of not being surprised by these trends in the middle of an investigation (02:52); the dangers to the cost, delay, and outcome of any investigation for failing to perceive the signals through the noise (04:08); the particular relevance of these strategies in defending against allegations of entity-shifting (09:48); the need to consider waiving privilege over prior bad legal advice—especially to avoid paying more to protect an investigation that was triggered by adhering to the prior advice (11:52); what to look for in the terms of a proposed settlement agreement, including whether and how the company will be “covered” if there are post-resolution reports of additional, previously undisclosed pre-resolution misconduct (13:22) and executive officer certification requirements (16:51); and the importance in national security resolutions, where they are imposed, of having post-resolution independent monitors or independent compliance consultants commit to focused, risk-based post-resolution monitoring that direct addresses the root causes of the violations, to avoid “industrial tourism” and to best promote the national security objectives of the United States (19:34).

Then, conclude with the next installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” segment (23:37).

Resources:

Brent’s latest NYU Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement (PCCE) post, “From Peanuts to Elephant-Sized Penalties: A Fresh Look at Recent U.S. Export Controls Enforcement Developments & Future Trends” (Oct. 31, 2025)

Mike & Brent’s prior NYU PCCE post, “Monitoring What Matters: A Fresh Look Proposal to Government and Industry for How Post-Resolution Oversight Can Best Deny Hostile Actors the Means to Cause Deadly Harm” (Mar. 28, 2024)

Contact Brent: brent@redflagsrising.com

Contact Mike: michael.huneke@morganlewis.com

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E30: Look Before You Leap, Think Before You Speak

Fresh off the October 15, 2025, WIT-NC/PAEI/TTRA “Global Trade Compliance Best Practices Conference” in Santa Clara, California, Mike and Brent discuss the practical takeaways of several recent media reports and statements from the U.S. Congress, including how compliance programs that incorporate the high-probability standard give executives and spokespersons the most options. Specifically, they discuss the conference (00:49); the recent Affiliates Rule (01:27); why straightforward statements that a company “complies with the law” might generate cynicism from the public and inquiries as to how from the government (02:59); why it’s important for companies to consider the context in which their public statements will appear, even where they might not agree with the facts asserted in that context (04:06); how delegitimizing the laws in the eyes of the public might be one of the smugglers’ objectives (05:47); how thinking about compliance as never being a one-and-done solution can help avoid pitfalls in public statements (06:54); why it’s dangerous to rely upon assertions by anonymous “legal experts” reported in articles about the existence of loopholes, including because those loopholes do not actually exist (08:49); the importance of keeping in mind, in the context of the Entity List and the Affiliates Rule, that the List is but one part of U.S. export controls and statements that fixate on the Entity List’s applicability expose corporations to questions about their compliance with other catch-all provisions, with General Prohibition 10, and with the various inchoate provisions (10:27); the importance of appreciating that U.S. regulators read the news too (11:40); how the “high probability” standard can help companies in making enhancements to their compliance programs to better support broader public statements as to their compliance with the law (14:41); recent reports about U.S. items being sold for crime control purposes and attention from the U.S. Congress on those reports (15:03); similar risks related to the recent report by the U.S. House of Representatives’ Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (17:23); keeping in mind that your own disagreement with U.S. national security policy is not a defense to export controls promulgated in support of that policy (19:02); and the importance of having advisors who are viewed by the government as honest brokers that are not clinging to legacy views about the government’s intentions or authorities (21:07).

Mike and Brent then conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (23:29).

Resources:

Contact Brent: brent@redflagsrising.com

Contact Mike: michael.huneke@morganlewis.com

Learn more about the conference’s organizing associations:

Women in International Trade – Northern California (WIT-NC)

Professional Association of Exporters & Importers (PAEI)

Technology Trade Regulation Alliance (TTRA)

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E29: Affiliates Rule Aftermath – Finding the Right Path Forward

Mike and Brent take an even deeper dive into the “Affiliates” or “50%” Rule announced by the Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) on September 29, 2025. They identify several misperceptions in the public discussion, explain why they are misperceptions, and identify the pitfalls of operating under those misperceptions—especially in response to inquiries by BIS about pre-rule due diligence on affiliates of entities on the entity list. Specifically, they discuss why the Affiliates Rule is a close cousin to the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s own 50% rule, but why and how BIS’s Affiliates Rule serves different national security objectives and operates a bit differently (02:42); whether the Affiliates Rule brings new compliance burdens and, if so, risk-based due diligence strategies and likely questions from BIS regarding why (10:26); why in the current geopolitical context the benefit of local, boots-on-the-ground compliance might be overstated—or significantly discounted by the U.S. government—and what to do about it (16:18); why it would be a mistake to think that BIS is not today able to bring enforcement actions based on the Affiliate Rule, especially given their ability to bring enforcement actions on the “full” definition of knowledge to include “an awareness of a high probability” (19:26); and why it is dangerous to think of “knowledge” as only “actual knowledge,” and thereby misperceiving that the new Affiliates Rule—by reminding everyone that the catch-all provision under which the Entity List is promulgated is a strict-liability regulation, even as to awareness—has someone taken away a previously available “absence of actual knowledge” defense (23:00).

Mike and Brent then offer practical tips for applying for the license available under the Affiliates Rule for situations where the exporter, reexporter, or transferor is aware of “red flags” as to ownership that it cannot resolve through risk-based due diligence (28:20).

Mike and Brent then conclude with a special edition of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up,” in which Brent offers some valuable self-reflection (34:58).

Resources:

More about Brent: www.redflagsrising.com

Contact Brent: brent@redflagsrising.com

Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/, https://www.morganlewis.com/bios/michaelhuneke

Contact Mike: michael.huneke@morganlewis.com

BIS’s “Export Control Decision Tree”

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E28: The Long-Awaited “50% Rule” – Key Takeaways and Liability Pitfalls to Avoid

Mike and Brent return with their take on a hotter-than-hot topic, the Bureau of Industry & Security’s new “50% Rule,” effective yesterday, September 29, 2025. Mike and Brent discuss the news of the rule’s announcement and the basics of what it does (00:46); the fact that the rule was effective immediately upon filing for public review, i.e., on September 29, 2025 (02:24); the fact that 50% is not some threshold under which risk goes away (06:19); how commentary suggesting that a “loophole” has been closed is not entirely accurate because such a loophole never existed in the first place (08:12); the requirements (including a description of due diligence performed) under a new, unique license application process (09:45); what enforcement risks are likely to arise in the government’s implementation of the new rule, especially if the government compares pre-rule trade flows to post-rule trade flows (10:43); the importance of not making a quick decision in how to respond to the new rule that you might later regret (12:23); the dangers of misreading the new rule to permit entity-shifting as an appropriate response (15:53); BIS’s caution that the rest of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR) still apply, separately from the Entity List (18:43); the admonition by BIS that “exporters, reexporters, and transferors have an affirmative responsibility to know the ownership of the foreign companies that are parties to a transaction” (19:45); the statement in the rule that those same actors “must adopt a risk-based compliance program to assist them in complying with these requirements” (20:14); the new “Red Flag 29” added to the BIS Know-Your-Customer (KYC) Guidance (21:05); and the importance of the explanatory text’s reference to “control” (irrespective of ownership) by a listed entity as a “red flag” requiring further due diligence (21:59).

Mike and Brent conclude with another installment, back by popular demand, of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” segment (24:57).

Resources:

Brent’s new contact information: brent@redflagsrising.com

Mike’s new contact information: michael.huneke@morganlewis.com

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

The U.S. export controls “Country List” (Supplement No. 1 to Part 740)

The BIS Press Release (with a link to the new rule)

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E26 – Grab the Carrots, Avoid the Sticks, and Get Ready for More Transparency

Mike and Brent pick up the discussion from Episode 25 with some further thoughts on the proposed revenue-sharing arrangement between the U.S. government and certain exporters, including what should be anticipated from the U.S. government in terms of increased transparency (01:36), give their take on the Maintaining American Superiority by Improving Export Controls Transparency Act signed into law by the President, including both what it does do and what it doesn’t do (10:27), and provide their takes on the long-running media speculation about a so-called “50% rule” that would extend the Entity List maintained by the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) automatically to subsidiaries or affiliates owned 50% or more by a listed entity (18:53), including questions that the debate raises about what due diligence is being done now on subsidiaries and affiliates of listed entities, and important distinctions between U.S. economic sanctions—from where the 50% rule concept is being borrowed—and U.S. export controls that suggest the rule is better suited for the former than the latter.

They conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (26:25).

Resources:

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

Mike & Brent’s “Fresh Looks” Series

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AI Today in 5

AI Today in 5: August 20, 2025, The In Pursuit of Super-Intelligence Episode

Welcome to AI Today in 5, the newest edition to the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, Tom Fox will bring you 5 stories about AI to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the AI Today In 5. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider four stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest about AI.

For more information on the use of AI in Compliance programs, my new book, Upping Your Game. You can purchase a copy of the book on Amazon.com

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E25 – Deals, More Deals, and Protective Backstops

Mike & Brent dive into the latest geopolitical developments surrounding technology exports and the interplay between leading tech companies and the U.S. Administration.

Specifically, they discuss the latest news regarding U.S. conditions for licensing the export of Nvidia’s H20 chip to China (00:38), the impact of the deal on trade negotiations between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (and vice-versa) (04:59), the difficult position companies generally are in regarding export controls due diligence and the multiple potential meanings and consequences regarding public officials’ statements around export controls (16:01), the latest news regarding Intel’s CEO’s interactions with the U.S. Administration and how they illustrate vividly the “whipsaw” effect companies and executives face as geopolitical winds swirl (20:09), the relevance of the “pretend mistake” tactic in dealmaking—or, as Mike referred to it in the context of U.S. export controls, the “revoked forgiveness” tactic (22:40), and, practically speaking, how companies can best anchor themselves amidst the geopolitical storm by designing and implementing a “high probability protocol” to best anticipate core trends in U.S. export controls enforcement and serve as an important compliance backstop (25:36).

They then conclude with another installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (26:59).

Resources:

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

Mike & Brent’s “Fresh Looks” Series

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E24 – Preventing Diversion Starts Close to Home

Mike and Brent break down the key takeaways from an affidavit by a Bureau of Industry & Security Special Agent in Los Angeles, which was unsealed on August 5, 2025, and is a masterclass in how BIS is identifying and analyzing “red flags” indicating potential export control violations.

Mike and Brent discuss the basics of the case (00:58), the value of the detailed affidavit prepared by the BIS Special Agent in support of the arrests (02:19), the value of the case to those making broader strategic decisions for companies in illustrating the competitive advantages—and ability to maximize the benefits of America’s AI Action Plan—through effective export controls compliance (03:00), the most-relevant details of the allegations (04:20), the dangers of doing business with “fly-by-night” operations of any type (05:45), how these allegations underscore the importance of dynamic risk assessments, i.e., those that focus on changes in customers or orders around significant changes to U.S. export controls (06:14), what the affidavit signals for corporate enforcement (07:21), what we can learn about diversion risks from Brent’s studies of the Qing dynasty and frozen meats (07:40), what seized text messages revealed about the smugglers’ view of the current U.S. Administration (08:57), what the affidavit indicates that trade compliance teams realistically, at the front end, could or should have known (10:31), how to respond to BIS requests for information or outreach visits (13:58), Mike’s leaky dishwasher analogy for diversion (and why you need to fix both) (14:15), how the affidavit shows that BIS agents are applying a high probability mindset in their investigations (18:27), how not to “kick the hornet’s nest” when BIS visits or requests information (20:29), the expectations of U.S. regulators generally that companies that become aware of potential violations, whether or not they voluntarily disclose anything, at least do a “root cause” analysis and consider whether compliance program enhancements are necessary (22:17), and the relevance of General Prohibition 10 and the several inchoate provisions under 15 C.F.R. § 764.2 (23:10).

They then conclude with the ever-popular segment, Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (26:03).

Resources:

Edvard Pettersson’s article, with a link to the BIS Special Agent’s affidavit, “Chinese nationals charged with illegal exports of Nvidia chips” (Courthouse News, Aug. 5, 2025)

The DOJ Press Release

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

Mike & Brent’s “Fresh Looks” Series

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Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E14 – Getting a Grip on U.S. Export Controls Guidance

Mike and Brent unpack the May 13, 2025, due diligence guidance from the U.S. Bureau of Industry & Security. They describe what happened on May 13 (00:00), the guidance from BIS on General Prohibition 10 and Huawei Ascend chips (03:34), the related BIS policy statement (04:13), and then focus on the BIS “Industry Guidance to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Computing Integrated Circuits” (04:47), specifically the underlying U.S. national security concerns (05:50), relevant key takeaways from Episode 13’s special guest Dana W. White (06:51), the significance of the Industry Guidance’s reference to the WMD and military-intelligence catch-all provisions (08:29), the historical pre-1993 “KYC Guidance” cross-referenced by BIS in the new Industry Guidance (11:53), how the historical “KYC Guidance” is often misunderstood through selective quotation devoid of relevant context (13:34), the new “red flags” identified in the May 13, 2025 Industry Guidance (16:10), the key takeaways of the Industry Guidance (17:55), a warning about over-reliance on the Industry Guidance’s statement about existing end-use certificates (18:47), and the practical implications of the Industry Guidance for trade compliance teams (19:36). They then conclude with the next installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (21:26).

Resources:

BIS May 15, 2025 Industry Guidance

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

Mike & Brent’s “Fresh Looks” Series