Tag: AI Diffusion

Categories
Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E41: AI Diffusion Confusion?

Mike and Brent reboot a prior recording overtaken by events, specifically the Sunday, May 31, 2026, guidance issued by BIS to global data centers and the June 12, 2026, “is-informed” letter by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, which prompted an AI model company to take down its latest models.

Mike and Brent first update listeners on pending legislation in the U.S. Congress (01:37). They then revisit last year’s May 13, 2025, announced intent by BIS to rescind the Biden-era “AI Diffusion Rule” (06:44), discuss questions around whether that rescission actually happened and, in any event, what was the status of U.S. export controls as a result (10:59), and then break down the May 31, 2025, guidance from BIS (15:53) including the opportunities and limitations of what reads like a “General Prohibition 10 Savings Clause” in the penultimate paragraph (19:43). They next discuss the Friday, June 12, 2026, “is-informed” letter issued by the Secretary of Commerce and its implications for industry (23:58). Then they conclude with a “Gray Rhino” edition of Brent’s “Managing Up” segment (26:18).

Resources:

Contact Brent

More about Brent

Connect with Brent on LinkedIn

Contact Mike

More about Mike

Connect with Mike on LinkedIn

The BIS Guidance from Sunday, May 31, 2026

Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (2016)

Categories
Red Flags Rising

Red Flags Rising: S01 E10 – AI Diffusion: A Proposed Path for Industry & Government

Mike & Brent propose an AI Diffusion Rule path forward to help both companies and the U.S. government. They start with an update on last-minute reporting before the episode was published (00:00) then cover the attention the AI Diffusion Rule is getting before its May 15, 2025 compliance date (03:56), the Rule’s similarity’s to the First World War’s “rationing system” for export controls (08:08), a report by Barath Harithas of the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) about the AI Diffusion Rule (09:15), how the AI Diffusion Rule incorporates by reference for companies in Tier 2 countries several new U.S. inbound and outbound restrictions that turn on the “high probability” standard (10:53), a CSIS report by Gregory C. Allen on DeepSeek and AI export controls in which Allen raises concerns about a high-regulation, low enforcement (or high loopholes) environment—which Mike & Brent refer to as Allen’s “One-Way Policy Fallacy” (13:21), and what Tier 2 countries (e.g., India, Israel, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE)—and their U.S. design or manufacturing companies can do to best position customers in such countries to have national companies become National Validated End Users to obtain more chips (19:07). They conclude with the latest installment, back by ever-increasing popular demand, of Brent Carlson’s “Managing-Up” segment (23:51).

Resources:

CSIS, Barath Harithas, The AI Diffusion Framework: Securing U.S. AI Leadership While Preempting Strategic Drift (Feb. 18, 2025)

CSIS, Gregory C. Allen, DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race (Mar. 7, 2025)

Gregory C. Allen’s “AI Policy” Podcast

Bloomberg Law, Michael Huneke, Outbound Investment Rule Embraces New National Security Paradigm (Nov. 7, 2024)

Brent LinkedIn

Mike LinkedIn

Mike & Brent’s “Fresh Looks” Series