Tag: Dr. Ian Oxnevard

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Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 1- The Middle East 

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. This visit was for a podcast series, sponsored by Infortal Worldwide entitled Global Risk Review. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a PhD in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies. His expertise, particularly in the Middle East and Africa region, has led him to identify numerous opportunities for US businesses, especially in the high-tech sector and water technology, following the Abraham Accords. Dr. Oxnevad acknowledges the potential risks, such as political tensions, inflationary pressures and threats to the dollar’s dominance. His insights are shaped by his extensive academic background and his role as the Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence for Infortal Worldwide.

Over this five-part blog post series we looked at the risk profile for US Companies doing business in the following geographic regions, the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and Ukraine, Africa and the Asia Pacific region. Over this five-part blog post series, we will review Dr. Oxnevad’s views in each one of these regions. We begin in this Part 1 by reviewing the business opportunities and risks in the Middle East.

The Middle East has undergone significant changes in recent years, particularly with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. These accords have opened new opportunities for US businesses in the region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. However, along with these opportunities come certain risks and challenges that need to be carefully considered.

One of the key areas where US businesses can benefit from the Abraham Accords is in the high-tech sector. Both the UAE and Israel have highly advanced economies and a strong focus on technology. The normalization of relations between these countries has created opportunities for bilateral investments and partnerships. US companies looking to invest in Israel or the Gulf states can now do so with greater ease, as the need to keep economic relations separate has diminished.

Another sector that presents opportunities for US businesses is water technology. The UAE, in particular, heavily invests in Africa, where there is a high demand for water systems. Previously, geopolitical issues may have hindered collaboration between Emirati investors and US companies in providing water technology solutions in Africa. However, with the Abraham Accords, these hurdles have been removed, allowing for greater regional integration and technological cooperation.

While the Abraham Accords have opened up new avenues for US businesses, it is important to consider the potential risks and challenges that come with operating in the Middle East. One such risk is the potential for export sanctions violations, particularly in relation to Iran. US companies operating in Saudi Arabia, for example, need to be aware of the risks associated with conducting business with partners or buyers who may have ties to Iran. Thorough due diligence and risk assessments are crucial in mitigating these risks.

Additionally, the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China’s Belt and Road initiative, has implications for energy costs and potential inflationary pressures. If oil sales start getting denominated in currencies other than the US dollar, it could lead to higher energy costs and inflationary pressures. This could have a significant impact on US businesses operating in the region, as it may affect supply chains and purchasing power.

It is important for US businesses to stay informed about geopolitical developments and the potential impact on business opportunities and risks in the Middle East. Geopolitical risk intelligence and screening of partners and suppliers are essential in navigating the complex landscape of the region.

In conclusion, the Abraham Accords have created new opportunities for US businesses in the Middle East, particularly in the UAE and Israel. The high-tech sector and water technology are key areas where US companies can benefit from increased regional integration. However, it is crucial to consider the risks associated with export sanctions and potential inflationary pressures. Thorough due diligence, risk assessments, and staying informed about geopolitical developments are essential for US businesses looking to capitalize on the opportunities in the Middle East post-Abraham Accords.

I hope you will join us tomorrow when we explore Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities in Latin America.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology by Infortal podcast series here.

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Riskology

Infortal on Risk Intelligence Part 5: Supply Chain Intelligence with Dr. Ian Oxnevad

In the final part of this week’s five-part special, Tom Fox discusses supply chain risks with Dr. Ian Oxnevad. He talks about the supply chain from a geopolitical risk perspective and the various steps companies can take to prepare themselves against those risks.

 

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is a political scientist and economist at Infortal Worldwide, a global risk firm that provides due diligence services to support key investment decision-making. Infortal Worldwide supports a lot of private equity investment, mergers, acquisitions, and any risk scenario a business may face.

  • Supply chain intelligence must first begin with a risk analysis. Companies must determine their exposure to geopolitical risks, such as political unrest, social unrest, or war. 
  • How a company de-risks its supply chain depends on which risk is the largest. “Are you looking at closing the distance and reducing logistical costs between a customer and a company?” Ian asks. Suppose your company is considering alternatives to its current supply chain system or systems outside its country. In that case, it must consider corruption, terrorism, organized crime, and ESG. 
  • Ian goes through some steps Infortal takes when counseling companies through de-risking. He describes what it takes to create a solid supply chain risk response plan. 
  • The intelligence process gives companies legal guidance and any other relevant information they need for making the right decisions while mitigating as much risk as possible.

KEY QUOTE

” Supply chain intelligence is key to understanding and avoiding hidden supply chain risks.”-  Dr. Ian Oxnevad 

Resources: 

Infortal Worldwide | Email | Tel: 1.800.736.4999

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Infortal Worldwide Geopolitical Risk Intelligence 2023 Outlook: Part 5-Supply Chain Intelligence

I recently had the opportunity to visit with, Chris Mason, VP Global Compliance & Investigations at Infortal Worldwide and Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director, Geopolitical Risk at Infortal Worldwide for a sponsor podcast on Infortal Worldwide’s Geopolitical Risk Intelligence 2023 Outlook. Over this series we considered business intelligence, ESG intelligence, corruption intelligence, sanctions intelligence and supply chain intelligence. In today’s final post in this five-part blog post series, we are joined by Ian Oxevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk at Infortal Worldwide, to discuss supply chain intelligence and how to navigate geopolitical risks. In this concluding blog post in this five-part series, we consider how to use intelligence to de-risk your supply chain and protect your business from geopolitical risks.

Oxnevad holds a PhD in political science and is an expert in in political science, economics, corporate espionage, economic warfare, money laundering, and terrorist financing to help companies understand the risks of their supply chain and how to de-risk it. He explains that supply chain intelligence is far from a new concept and goes as far back as the spice trade in the 15th century. Ian provides a three-step process to navigating supply chain intelligence and de-risking and provides a wealth of knowledge on the subject.

Here are the steps you need to follow to also get risk mitigation.:

1. Assess what your exposure is to certain geopolitical risks.

2. Utilize intelligence to find alternatives that connect a company to its customers.

3. Screen potential alternatives and warning indicators.

1. Assess what your exposure is to certain geopolitical risks.

The first step in assessing a company’s exposure to certain geopolitical risks is to gather information from the client. This includes their risk exposure, concerns, and goals. A company should then use intelligence sources, such as boots-on-the-ground resources and triangulated analysis, to create an intelligence product that can be used to make informed decisions. Once the risks have been identified, a company can then begin to look for potential alternatives to mitigate them. This could involve relocating suppliers to other regions, increasing efficiency, or increasing redundancy. Companies should also be aware of warning indicators that may indicate a rise in risk, such as political unrest, changes in regime, or an increase in militarism. Finally, the company must make an informed decision on which alternative to pursue. For more information on this topic, readers can visit the website Infortal.

2. Utilize intelligence to find alternatives that connect a company to its customers.

Utilizing intelligence to find alternatives that connect a company to its customers requires a two-step process. The first step is to interview the client, assess their risk exposure, and understand their goals. This will then inform the intelligence collection process which should include triangulated analysis, boots on the ground resources, and data from multiple sources. This will be collated into an intelligence product that will provide the client with a clear picture of their potential opportunities to de-risk.

The second step is to screen potential alternatives and conduct due diligence. This includes researching potential suppliers and investors, local conditions, and warning indicators that could signal risk in the future. This should give the company the information they need to make informed decisions and the ultimate decision of which alternative to pursue is left up to them. For more information, listeners can visit the Infortal website.

3. Screen potential alternatives and warning indicators.

The third step in addressing supply chain intelligence is to screen potential alternatives and warning indicators. This involves conducting an intelligence cycle for the company by interviewing the client to determine their risk exposure and goals, and then utilizing boots on the ground resources and triangulating analysis from different sources to refine and integrate information into an intelligence product. Companies can also benefit from due diligence to screen potential suppliers, investors, and local conditions.

It is also important to monitor warning indicators of developing risks. These indicators can include contentious presidential elections, the annexation of Crimea, the integration of Russian mercenaries in the Donatas and Donbas regions, and more. This can help the company anticipate any risk that the company may be exposed to, allowing them to make informed decisions on the best alternative supply chain system for them. Finally, the decision is up to the company and their legal counsel, executives, and other pertinent players.

Navigating supply chain intelligence and de-risking requires a two-step process of gathering information and utilizing intelligence sources to create an intelligence product. Companies should also screen potential alternatives, conduct due diligence, and monitor warning indicators to ensure they make the best decision for their company. With the right strategies and knowledge, any business can protect itself from geopolitical risks and achieve success.

Check out Ian Oxnevard on the Riskology by Infortal podcast here.