Tag: Superforecasting

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Compliance Tip of the Day

Compliance Tip of the Day – Superforecasting

Welcome to “Compliance Tip of the Day,” the podcast where we bring you daily insights and practical advice on navigating the ever-evolving landscape of compliance and regulatory requirements. Whether you’re a seasoned compliance professional or just starting your journey, we aim to provide bite-sized, actionable tips to help you stay on top of your compliance game. Join us as we explore the latest industry trends, share best practices, and demystify complex compliance issues to keep your organization on the right side of the law. Tune in daily for your dose of compliance wisdom, and let’s make compliance a little less daunting, one tip at a time.

Today, we look at how a compliance professional can use Superforecasting to improve your overall risk forecasting ability.

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31 Days to More Effective Compliance Programs

Superforecasting


Imagine that as a CCO, you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability, but to do so you would be required to expose just how unreliable the professional corporate forecasters have been. Could you do so and, more importantly, would you do so? Most generally this is the predictive capability that organizations have used. However, the new “superforecasting” movement, led by Philip E. Tetlock and others, has been gaining strength to help improve this capability.
The concepts around superforecasting came of age after the intelligence failures leading up to the Iraq War. This led to the founding of the Good Judgment Project, which had as a key component a multi-year predictive tournament, which was a series of gaming exercises pitting amateurs against professional intelligence analysts. The results of the Good Judgment Project. Today, I explain its applicability to compliance.
Three key takeaways:

  1. Imagine you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability.
  2. It is essential to track the prediction outcomes and provide timely feedback to improve forecasting going forward.
  3. Like any innovation, there must be a commitment from management on moving forward.