Tag: Dr. Ian Oxnevad

Categories
Blog

Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 5- Doing Business With and In China

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. This visit was for a podcast series, sponsored by Infortal Worldwide entitled Global Risk Review. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a PhD in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies. In this concluding blog post we look at risks in doing business in China. In this concluding blog post 5, we consider the risks and opportunities for US companies continued business with and in the country of China.

Oxnevad’s perspective on US companies considering leaving China is rooted in his understanding of the potential challenges they face, including political instability and property confiscation. He strongly advises companies to expedite the process of moving their assets out of China, citing the high risks involved, especially in the event of a war. Oxnevad suggests alternatives such as nearshoring or reshoring to safer locations like the United States, and also highlights India as a potential investment destination due to its large domestic market and lack of political issues with the US.

In recent years, China’s strict COVID-19 response and aggressive foreign policy have created political challenges and global inflation. These factors have prompted US companies to consider moving their operations away from China. Smaller Asia-Pacific countries, caught in the crossfire of geopolitical risks, lack the economic stability and military capacity to handle potential conflicts. As a result, India is emerging as a more stable option due to its democratic governance and institutional safeguards. However, Pakistan, with its history of authoritarian rule, security risks, and close ties with China, presents a unique and complex business landscape.

China’s foreign policy has become increasingly aggressive, despite its internal issues with state-owned enterprise debt and lingering resentment over COVID-19. This aggressive stance has raised concerns among American companies and others, leading them to explore options for decoupling from China. The potential risks of war and the resulting instability have become a significant factor in their decision-making process. Companies are now considering near-shoring, ally-shoring, or reshoring their operations to minimize their exposure to China.

One of the key flashpoints in the region is the tension between China and Taiwan. China’s regular incursions into Taiwanese waterways and airspace have raised the possibility of a conflict erupting overnight, with no advanced warning. The situation is further complicated by China’s tensions with India in the Himalayas. Hand-to-hand battles between Indian troops and the Chinese military have occurred, highlighting the long-standing competition between the two countries. The potential for a massive war involving China, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, India, and the US is a real concern, with nuclear weapons adding to the instability.

Given these risks, US companies are exploring alternatives to China, with India emerging as a potential destination. India offers a more stable investment environment compared to China, with its democratic governance and experience with parliamentary procedures. While India has its own internal issues, such as corruption, it still maintains a commitment to democratic principles and the rule of law. Additionally, India’s large domestic market and its central location make it an attractive option for companies looking to diversify their supply chains.

However, it is important to note that India is not without its risks. The country has shown tendencies towards autocracy and strongman rule, although these tendencies are not as pronounced as in some other countries. India’s federal structure and institutional safeguards provide some protection against the consolidation of power by a strongman leader. While no country is immune to political risks, India’s democratic experience and commitment to democratic principles make it a relatively stable option compared to other countries in the region.

The potential risks in China have also raised the question of whether US companies should consider near-shoring or reshoring their operations back to the United States. The government can play a role in facilitating such efforts through tax incentives, grants, and other types of incentives. However, the decision to reshore or near-shore is not without tradeoffs. Companies must weigh the potential benefits of reduced exposure to geopolitical risks against the costs of relocating their supply chains and the potential impact on their relationships with Chinese partners and customers.

In conclusion, US companies are seriously considering leaving China amid the political challenges and geopolitical risks in the region. The potential for conflict, particularly involving Taiwan, has raised concerns about the stability of supply chains and the safety of investments in China. India is emerging as a more stable alternative, with its democratic governance and institutional safeguards. However, companies must carefully consider the tradeoffs involved in relocating their operations and the potential impact on their business relationships. The decision to leave China is not an easy one, but it is a reflection of the increasing uncertainties and risks in the region.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology by Infortal podcast series here.

Categories
Blog

Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 4 – Factors Impacting European Financial Integration

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. This visit was for a podcast series sponsored by Infortal Worldwide entitled Global Risk Review. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a Ph.D. in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies.

Ian Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risks impacting European financial integration and opportunities, with a profound understanding of Europe’s internal and external crises since 2008. We will consider factors affecting European financial integration in Part 4 of this five-part blog post series. Oxnevad’s perspective is that Europe has been grappling with constant internal stressors and external crises, such as banking crises and political upheavals, which pose significant risks to European financial integration. He underscores the need for enhanced risk analysis at the national level and geopolitical risk intelligence to navigate the uncertainties in Europe.

However, Oxnevad also identifies opportunities for US companies, particularly in the energy sector, to export to Europe, especially in the context of a stronger Euro. He further discusses the regulatory risks posed by GDPR and ESG laws in Europe and how US companies must manage these risks. In this blog post, we deeply dive into these complex and evolving geopolitical risks in Europe and their potential impact on financial integration and opportunities.

Europe has been facing many challenges impacting its financial integration and potentially altering the European Union (EU) and the Euro in a recent episode of the Riskology podcast hosted by Tom Fox and featuring Ian Oxnevad, the discussion centered around the geopolitical risks that Europe is currently grappling with and the opportunities that arise amidst these challenges.

One of the key factors affecting European financial integration is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This conflict, coupled with rising energy prices, Middle East instability, and unchecked migration, puts pressure on the region’s financial integration and potentially changes the EU and the Euro as a monetary unit. These external pressures, along with internal populism, ongoing inflation, and high energy costs, are fueling resentment and could significantly impact European integration and its governing laws.

The Russia-Ukraine war has spilled energy inflation, creating monetary instability and supply chain issues. Annual inflation rose by 40% in June 2022 due to the invasion, and it remains high at 16.6% as of February this year. This inflationary pressure affects various aspects of the economy, including consumer spending capacity, production capacity, and manufacturing affordability. Governments have increased spending to offset these costs, further straining the Euro and limiting the ability to navigate these challenges through monetary means.

The pressures Europe faces are not limited to the EU as a whole but extend to the national level. This shift necessitates a greater focus on risk analysis at both levels, as the rules and regulations governing European integration may change suddenly and overnight. The emergence of populism across the EU, as seen in France and the Netherlands, indicates growing animosity towards incumbents and a desire for change. This political upheaval poses risks and uncertainties for businesses operating in Europe, as regulations, taxation, and even the monetary unit itself may be subject to change.

Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for US energy companies to export to Europe. The weakening of the dollar and the strength of the Euro make Europe an attractive export location for US goods and services, including energy. However, regulatory risks and challenges must be carefully considered. Europe’s robust data protection and privacy laws, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and its focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors present potential risks for US companies. Compliance with these regulations requires careful risk management and due diligence.

ESG initiatives, particularly the push for renewable energy, present countervailing risks. While there is a regulatory push for green energy, the inefficiencies and costs associated with these technologies and the reliance on minerals from regions with questionable labor practices create challenges. Balancing the environmental (E) aspect of ESG with the social (S) and governance (G) aspects requires careful consideration and geopolitical risk intelligence.

The banking sector is also facing turmoil, with institutions like Deutsche Bank and Swiss banks experiencing challenges. While it is unlikely that the German government would allow Deutsche Bank to fail, the stability of these institutions and their role in global monetary and fiscal policy is a concern. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve play crucial roles in stabilizing the financial systems, but their ability to navigate these challenges remains to be seen.

In conclusion, the geopolitical risks impacting European financial integration and opportunities are complex and multifaceted. Europe’s response to the Russia-Ukraine war, rising energy prices, Middle East instability, and unchecked migration will shape the future of the EU and the Euro. Balancing the tradeoffs involved in managing these risks, such as the need for defense spending versus protecting consumers, requires careful analysis and risk intelligence. US companies can find opportunities in exporting to Europe, but they must navigate regulatory risks and consider the contradictions within ESG mandates. The banking sector’s stability and global institutions’ role in stabilizing the financial systems are also areas of concern. As Europe faces these challenges, it is crucial to consider the impact on financial integration and opportunities when making decisions.

Please join us tomorrow when we explore geopolitical risks and business opportunities in China and the greater Asia Pacific region.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology podcast series here.

Categories
Blog

Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 3 – Russia and Rebuilding Ukraine

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. Global Risk Review, a podcast series that Infortal Worldwide sponsors was the reason for this visit. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a Ph.D. in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies.

Over this five-part blog series, we will look at the risk profile for US Companies doing business in the following geographic regions: the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and Ukraine, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. Over this five-part blog post series, we will review Dr. Oxnevad’s views in each one of these regions. Part 3 reviews the business opportunities and risks in Russia and the challenges and opportunities in rebuilding Ukraine.

Dr. Oxnevad deeply understands the issues in Russia and Ukraine. His belief that the upcoming rebuilding of Ukraine will spark a surge of interest from significant US corporations, the EU, and China, potentially resulting in increased corruption and geopolitical risks, shapes his perspective on the global implications and geopolitical risks. Oxnevad emphasizes the need for ongoing due diligence and monitoring by Western companies to navigate potential challenges and uncertainties, such as changes in laws and competition from different countries. He also acknowledges the significant risk of corruption in Ukraine, especially during the rebuilding process, and believes it may take time for EU institutions to mitigate this risk.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has had far-reaching consequences, not only for Europe but also for other parts of the world. Indeed, it has changed business across the globe forever.

One of the key factors to consider is the impact on global food supplies. Russia and Ukraine are major food and grain suppliers, and the war and sanctions have disrupted their production. This has put food supplies at risk, increasing food costs and inflationary pressures worldwide. Countries in Africa and the Middle East, in particular, heavily rely on these food supplies, and the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s ability to meet these demands raises concerns.

The rebuilding of Ukraine presents significant opportunities for major corporations from the United States, the European Union, China, and other countries. However, it also raises concerns about corruption and geopolitical risks. Ukraine has been traditionally viewed as a high-risk country for corruption, and the war has only exacerbated this issue. The chaos and emergency in the country create a greater incentive for corruption to exist. President Zelensky’s ability to address these concerns remains to be determined, and it is unlikely that corruption will disappear even if the war were to end abruptly.

From a geopolitical standpoint, the war between Russia and Ukraine has become a proxy war between Russia and the West and China and the West. This further complicates the situation and introduces additional risks. The resolution of the war and the lifting of sanctions will depend on various factors, including Russia’s political landscape and the leadership of President Putin. If Putin remains in power, the sanctions will likely stay in place. However, if there is a change in leadership, lifting sanctions could be a possibility, albeit with careful consideration of Russia’s economic and political landscape.

The rush to capitalize on Ukraine’s rebuilding presents both opportunities and risks. Many countries and corporations will be vying for a stake in Ukraine, increasing the incentives for corruption and other geopolitical risks. Competitors will be aware of the presence of different countries, further complicating the situation. It is crucial for American companies and others to carefully assess the risks associated with corruption in Ukraine and conduct thorough due diligence before engaging in business opportunities.

The international community, including the European Union, NATO, and the United Nations, may play a role in assisting Ukraine in its rebuilding efforts. Establishing the rule of law, policies, and procedures will ensure a successful reconstruction. However, the timing of international involvement is crucial. Rebuilding efforts must occur before existing EU institutions move in to address corruption, as this will help mitigate the associated risks.

In conclusion, rebuilding Ukraine has significant global implications and geopolitical risks. The disruption of food supplies, the rush to capitalize on opportunities, and the challenges associated with corruption must be carefully considered. The resolution of the war and the lifting of sanctions depend on various factors, including Russia’s political landscape. International assistance in rebuilding efforts, particularly in establishing the rule of law, will be crucial. However, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence and assess the risks before engaging in business opportunities in Ukraine.

Please join us tomorrow when we explore geopolitical risks and business opportunities in Europe.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology podcast series here.

Categories
Blog

Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 2 – Latin America

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. Global Risk Review, a podcast series that Infortal Worldwide sponsors was the reason for this visit. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a Ph.D. in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies. Over this five-part blog post series, we will review Dr. Oxnevad’s views in each one of these regions. Part 2 reviews the business opportunities and risks in Latin America.

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is a highly regarded expert in global geopolitical risk, with special knowledge of Latin America. His extensive experience and understanding of the region’s shifting dynamics shape his perspective on Latin America’s geopolitical risks and business opportunities. Oxnevad identifies significant changes and instability in the region, including increased statism, corruption, and authoritarianism, as well as China’s growing influence, particularly in Brazil. He emphasizes the importance of due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence, often overlooked by CEOs and political figures. He discusses the risks and potential opportunities for US businesses in Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, Chile, and Ecuador.

Latin America is a region that is experiencing a rise in geopolitical risk and instability. With China increasing its presence in the region and concerns growing over corruption and authoritarianism, it is crucial for companies considering investment in Latin America to prioritize due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence. Despite these challenges, the region is not on the sidelines of global events and offers potential business opportunities.

One of the popular strategies for US companies is nearshoring in Mexico. However, this approach comes with its own set of risks. Nationalization, political divisions, and crime are some of the factors that companies need to consider when investing in Mexico. It is important to conduct thorough research and analysis to understand the specific risks associated with each location within Latin America.

Dr. Oxnevad emphasized the importance of paying attention to Latin America regarding geopolitical risks and business opportunities. He pointed out that many CEOs and people in the political world view Latin America as being off the sidelines of major events worldwide, but this is far from the truth. Latin America is a dynamic region that requires careful consideration and attention.

Despite its challenges, Cuba can become a financial hub in Latin America. Its strategic location and favorable weather make it an attractive destination for businesses. However, significant reforms, regional ties, and US investment would be necessary to realize this potential. Cuba was historically a financial center in the Americas under Spanish rule. If it were to liberalize and attract investment, it could play a similar role in Latin America as the UAE does in Africa.

Additionally, simply looking at a map of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean reveals that Cuba is the best entry point for the northern Latin American continent from a transportation perspective. Cuba’s potential as a gateway to northeastern Latin America, particularly in shipping and transshipping, makes it an attractive business prospect. Finally, the Obama Administration’s initiative to open Cuba to US commerce, which the Trump Administration scuttled, shows an active consumer base for US goods, products, and services. When President Obama visited Cuba, over 2000 US business executives traveled to meet and assess the business opportunities.

Venezuela, on the other hand, presents a different set of challenges. The Venezuelan regime is hostile towards the US, and China has increased its presence there. This makes a significant opening for US businesses unlikely. Moreover, even if there is an opening, the pervasive corruption problem will make it difficult to do business with Venezuela. The national energy concern, PdVSA, is generally recognized as one of the most corrupt energy-related state-owned enterprises globally. Navigating doing business with PdVSA will be difficult and closely watched by US authorities.

Conversely, despite not being directly connected to the energy industry, Cuba has a better chance of opening up. The existing regime in Cuba relies on Raul Castro for legitimacy, and there is a greater likelihood of liberalization due to political reasons.

When considering business opportunities in Latin America, it is essential to assess the geopolitical risks associated with each country. Chile, for example, is considered safer than Ecuador due to its more pro-business body of law. However, Chile is internally divided, and there are pushes to increase authoritarianism. Ecuador, on the other hand, appears more unstable, with recent electoral violence. Conducting thorough screenings and assessments of each country’s legal framework, corruption levels, labor relations, and criminal risks is crucial for making informed decisions.

In conclusion, Latin America presents both geopolitical risks and business opportunities. Companies must conduct due diligence and gather geopolitical risk intelligence to navigate the challenges and tradeoffs. Latin America should be noticed, as it is a region actively involved in global events. By carefully considering the impact of geopolitical risks and making informed decisions, businesses can tap into the potential that Latin America has to offer.

Please join us tomorrow when we explore Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities in Russia and Ukraine.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology by Infortal podcast series here.