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Cartels, TCOs, and Compliance in Latin America: Why 2026 Is a Watershed Moment

For compliance professionals, some years mark an evolution. Others mark a turning point. In 2026, corporate compliance in Latin America has reached that turning point. For the past two decades, most companies approached regional risk through a familiar lens: anti-corruption. The focus was on government touchpoints, customs interactions, licensing, permits, state-owned enterprises, and third-party intermediaries. That framework is still important. But it is no longer sufficient.

Today, the risk landscape has expanded dramatically. Cartels, transnational criminal organizations, foreign terrorist organization designations, sanctions, anti-money laundering exposure, and supply chain infiltration have all moved to the center of the compliance conversation. What was once a specialized concern has become a board-level issue.

That is why the upcoming ACI Forum on Cartels, TCOs, and Compliance in Latin America is so timely. It is also why compliance officers need to understand that this is not simply another enforcement trend. It is a structural change in how risk must be assessed, governed, and managed. I recently had the opportunity to visit with Matt Ellis, Member at Miller & Chevalier and co-Chair of the Forum. You can listen to Ellis’ remarks on this episode of the FCPA Compliance Report on the Compliance Podcast Network.

The New Risk Equation

The Trump administration has made clear that cartels, fentanyl trafficking, organized crime, and the influence of China in Latin America are policy priorities. That focus has brought multiple enforcement tools to bear, including sanctions, anti-money laundering authorities, FTO designations, and a broader integration of these issues into the compliance and enforcement landscape.

Ellis said that companies, the old model of regional compliance risk must be rethought. The issue is no longer limited to whether a payment was made to a foreign official. The question now is whether a company’s supply chain, transportation provider, security arrangement, or local commercial partner could create exposure under anti-terrorism, sanctions, or AML frameworks.

Mexico Is the Opening Chapter, Not the Whole Book

Much of the current focus is on Mexico, and for good reason. That is where the enforcement spotlight is currently brightest. But compliance professionals should not make the mistake of thinking this challenge begins and ends there.

The risks extend across Latin America, including Central America, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, Panama, and other markets where cartel activity, organized crime influence, sanctions risk, or opaque commercial structures may create significant exposure. Each country carries its own risk profile, but the common lesson is clear. Mexico may be the first chapter, but it will not be the last.

For boards and executive teams, that means regional strategy must be reviewed through a broader lens. Market entry, third-party engagement, logistics routes, security providers, and local partnerships all need to be reassessed.

Why the Supply Chain Has Become a Compliance Flashpoint

One of the most important lessons from this discussion is that cartel risk can be embedded in the supply chain. This is where compliance professionals need to recalibrate their thinking. In the anti-corruption world, companies typically focus on agents, distributors, customs brokers, and other third parties that have direct government interactions. In the cartel and TCO context, risk can be embedded within ordinary business operations. Transportation vendors, warehouse providers, local suppliers, labor relationships, and security services may all present hidden risk if they are controlled by, connected to, or exploited by organized crime.

That changes the role of compliance. Procurement, logistics, operations, and security can no longer be treated as peripheral functions. They are now front-line participants in risk identification and mitigation. This is where the compliance function must show leadership. The CCO must bring these disciplines together and translate legal and enforcement developments into practical operational controls.

Due Diligence Must Move Beyond Check-the-Box

If there is one message compliance professionals should take from Ellis’ podcast, it is this: traditional due diligence is not enough. In anti-corruption compliance, companies have become skilled at identifying common red flags. They know how to screen for politically exposed persons, government connections, unusual payment terms, and opaque ownership structures. Those tools still matter, but they will not always surface cartel-linked risk. Organized crime does not announce itself in a database hit.

Instead, companies need a more nuanced and operationally grounded approach. Are there local security concerns being raised by employees? Are there unusual labor dynamics in a region where those patterns do not make commercial sense? Is there persistent chatter about a vendor, route, or business partner that cannot be ignored? Are operations in a community producing concerns that legal and compliance have not fully explored? These are not traditional diligence questions, but they are increasingly the right ones.

Under the DOJ’s Evaluation of Corporate Compliance Programs (ECCP), regulators continue to ask whether a company’s program is designed, implemented, and tested in a manner that addresses actual risk. This is precisely where program effectiveness will now be measured in high-risk operations in Latin America.

The Importance of Listening to the People on the Ground

One of the most practical insights from the interview was the emphasis on local intelligence. Employees who live and work in these communities often know far more than any desktop diligence report will reveal.

That point should resonate deeply with compliance professionals. A company’s speak-up culture is not simply about hotline metrics or case closure rates. It is about whether employees trust the organization enough to raise concerns that may not yet fit into a neat legal category. It is about whether the company listens when local personnel say that something does not add up. This is where compliance, culture, and internal controls intersect.

If a company has not built mechanisms to capture and escalate local concerns, then it is not simply missing information. It is missing one of the most effective risk detection tools available to it. These are not abstract governance questions. They go directly to program effectiveness, risk ownership, and business sustainability.

A Whole-of-Government Enforcement Model

Another important takeaway is the multidimensional nature of this risk environment. In the FCPA era, companies often focused on the DOJ and the SEC. That framework no longer captures the full picture. Now the compliance professional must think across Treasury, OFAC, FinCEN, Homeland Security, DEA, and other agencies, all of which may be interested in the same underlying conduct. This level of coordination matters because it means the government’s expectations are no longer siloed. Enforcement, intelligence, sanctions, and AML concerns can converge quickly. For compliance officers, this demands a more integrated risk management model. Silos within the company will not work when the government itself operates in a coordinated manner.

Is There More Room for Government Engagement?

One of the more interesting themes from the discussion was whether companies may have more room to engage with the government than they traditionally would in the anti-corruption context. That does not mean every issue should be self-disclosed. It does mean that in high-risk environments, thoughtful engagement may sometimes be part of a sound compliance strategy.

The key is judgment. No company should rush into a conversation with the government without understanding the facts and the implications. But where risks are ambiguous, stakes are high, and the legal regimes overlap, strategic dialogue may help demonstrate good faith, show the absence of criminal intent, and allow a company to explain the reasonable steps it is taking. That is not leniency. That is credibility.

The Bottom Line

This is the next generation of Latin America compliance risk. It does not replace anti-corruption compliance. It expands it, hardens it, and operationalizes it. The lesson for compliance professionals is clear. You cannot address cartel and TCO risk with yesterday’s playbook. You need broader risk assessments, deeper third-party diligence, stronger local reporting channels, tighter cross-functional coordination, and more informed board oversight.

In 2026, the companies that succeed will not be the ones with the longest policy manuals. They will be the ones who can demonstrate a compliance program built for the reality of where they operate. For the CCO, that is the challenge. For the board, that is the oversight mandate. For the business, that is the cost of operating responsibly in a changed enforcement environment. The future of compliance in Latin America is already here. The only question is whether your program is ready for it.

Check out the ACI Forum on Cartels, TCOs, and Compliance in Latin America by clicking here. You can receive a 10% off the price by using the Discount Code D10-999-CPN26.

ACI is the sponsor of today’s blog.

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ACI FCPA Conference 2025

ACI-FCPA Conference Speaker Preview Series – Ricardo Wagner de Araujo on Potential Trouble in your (Latin American) Supply Chain

In this episode of the ACI-FCPA and Global Anti-Corruption Conference Speaker Podcasts series, Ricardo Wagner de Araujo discusses his panel at the event, “Managing New Risks in Latin America: A Look at the Biggest Ways Cartels/TCOs Are Infiltrating Businesses and Supply Chains, and How Companies Are Responding.”

Some of the issues the panel will discuss are:

    • The changing risks in Latin America.
    • How TCOs and cartels exploit 3rd party relationships.
    • Tips for adapting your compliance programs in Latin America.

I hope you can join me at the ACI–FCPA Conference. This year’s event will take place on December 3-4 at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland, near Washington, D.C. The lineup of this year’s event is simply first-rate, featuring some of the top FCPA professionals, white-collar attorneys, and compliance practitioners in the field.

The 2025 program is being completely redesigned to help your organization stay agile, responsive, and ahead of the curve. Expect a dynamic agenda shaped by real-world priorities, practical takeaways, and the most cutting-edge thinking in compliance—led by a faculty of global practitioners with boots on the ground, encountering the very risks that come across your desk.

Please join me at the event. For information on the event, click here. Listeners of this podcast will receive a discount by using the code D10-999-CPN26.

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FCPA Compliance Report

FCPA Compliance Report – Navigating the Complexities of FTO Designations and Compliance in Mexico and Latin America

Welcome to the award-winning FCPA Compliance Report, the longest-running podcast on compliance. In this episode, Tom welcomes Tim O’Toole and Matt Ellis from Miller & Chevalier Chartered to discuss the significant implications of President Trump’s executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs).

Tim and Matt elaborate on the heightened compliance risks and operational challenges now faced by companies operating in these regions. The conversation delves into the legal distinctions between Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) and FTOs, the broad-ranging impact on industries such as agriculture and logistics, and the urgent need for robust risk assessment strategies to mitigate civil and criminal liabilities under U.S. law. They also explore the broader Latin American context and potential collateral consequences for U.S. and Latin American companies amid anticipations of increased regulatory scrutiny and enforcement actions. The discussion concludes with timely observations on recent U.S. Treasury directives aimed at curbing cartel money laundering activities, showcasing the lengths the administration is willing to go to combat these criminal enterprises.

Key highlights:

  • Executive Order and FTO Designation
  • Heightened Risks for Companies in Mexico
  • Complexities of Cartel Influence in Mexico
  • Risk Management Strategies for Companies
  • Broader Implications for Latin America
  • Potential Weaponization of FTO Designation
  • Corporate Compliance and Human Rights

Resources:

Designation of Cartels as FTOs Creates Heightened Risks for Companies Operating in Latin America

Miller & Chevalier

Tim O’Toole

Matt Ellis

Tom Fox

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Blog

Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities: Part 2 – Latin America

I recently had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Ian Oxnevad, Director of Geopolitical Risk Intelligence at Infortal Worldwide. Global Risk Review, a podcast series that Infortal Worldwide sponsors was the reason for this visit. Dr. Oxnevad is a seasoned expert in geopolitical risk intelligence, with a Ph.D. in political science and a master’s degree in National Security Studies. Over this five-part blog post series, we will review Dr. Oxnevad’s views in each one of these regions. Part 2 reviews the business opportunities and risks in Latin America.

Dr. Ian Oxnevad is a highly regarded expert in global geopolitical risk, with special knowledge of Latin America. His extensive experience and understanding of the region’s shifting dynamics shape his perspective on Latin America’s geopolitical risks and business opportunities. Oxnevad identifies significant changes and instability in the region, including increased statism, corruption, and authoritarianism, as well as China’s growing influence, particularly in Brazil. He emphasizes the importance of due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence, often overlooked by CEOs and political figures. He discusses the risks and potential opportunities for US businesses in Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, Chile, and Ecuador.

Latin America is a region that is experiencing a rise in geopolitical risk and instability. With China increasing its presence in the region and concerns growing over corruption and authoritarianism, it is crucial for companies considering investment in Latin America to prioritize due diligence and geopolitical risk intelligence. Despite these challenges, the region is not on the sidelines of global events and offers potential business opportunities.

One of the popular strategies for US companies is nearshoring in Mexico. However, this approach comes with its own set of risks. Nationalization, political divisions, and crime are some of the factors that companies need to consider when investing in Mexico. It is important to conduct thorough research and analysis to understand the specific risks associated with each location within Latin America.

Dr. Oxnevad emphasized the importance of paying attention to Latin America regarding geopolitical risks and business opportunities. He pointed out that many CEOs and people in the political world view Latin America as being off the sidelines of major events worldwide, but this is far from the truth. Latin America is a dynamic region that requires careful consideration and attention.

Despite its challenges, Cuba can become a financial hub in Latin America. Its strategic location and favorable weather make it an attractive destination for businesses. However, significant reforms, regional ties, and US investment would be necessary to realize this potential. Cuba was historically a financial center in the Americas under Spanish rule. If it were to liberalize and attract investment, it could play a similar role in Latin America as the UAE does in Africa.

Additionally, simply looking at a map of the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean reveals that Cuba is the best entry point for the northern Latin American continent from a transportation perspective. Cuba’s potential as a gateway to northeastern Latin America, particularly in shipping and transshipping, makes it an attractive business prospect. Finally, the Obama Administration’s initiative to open Cuba to US commerce, which the Trump Administration scuttled, shows an active consumer base for US goods, products, and services. When President Obama visited Cuba, over 2000 US business executives traveled to meet and assess the business opportunities.

Venezuela, on the other hand, presents a different set of challenges. The Venezuelan regime is hostile towards the US, and China has increased its presence there. This makes a significant opening for US businesses unlikely. Moreover, even if there is an opening, the pervasive corruption problem will make it difficult to do business with Venezuela. The national energy concern, PdVSA, is generally recognized as one of the most corrupt energy-related state-owned enterprises globally. Navigating doing business with PdVSA will be difficult and closely watched by US authorities.

Conversely, despite not being directly connected to the energy industry, Cuba has a better chance of opening up. The existing regime in Cuba relies on Raul Castro for legitimacy, and there is a greater likelihood of liberalization due to political reasons.

When considering business opportunities in Latin America, it is essential to assess the geopolitical risks associated with each country. Chile, for example, is considered safer than Ecuador due to its more pro-business body of law. However, Chile is internally divided, and there are pushes to increase authoritarianism. Ecuador, on the other hand, appears more unstable, with recent electoral violence. Conducting thorough screenings and assessments of each country’s legal framework, corruption levels, labor relations, and criminal risks is crucial for making informed decisions.

In conclusion, Latin America presents both geopolitical risks and business opportunities. Companies must conduct due diligence and gather geopolitical risk intelligence to navigate the challenges and tradeoffs. Latin America should be noticed, as it is a region actively involved in global events. By carefully considering the impact of geopolitical risks and making informed decisions, businesses can tap into the potential that Latin America has to offer.

Please join us tomorrow when we explore Geopolitical Risks and Business Opportunities in Russia and Ukraine.

You can check Dr. Oxnevad in the full five-part Riskology by Infortal podcast series here.

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FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 272 Miller & Chevalier 2016 Latin America Survey

here. [tweet_box design=”default” url=”http://wp.me/p6DnMo-2H2″ float=”none”]The Miller 2016 Latin American Corruption Survey provides key insights for the compliance practitioner.[/tweet_box]]]>