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TechLaw10

TechLaw10: Predictions for 2026

In this film, Punter Southall Law’s Jonathan Armstrong & Prof. Eric Sinrod discuss their predictions for 2026. This is episode 296 in the popular TechLaw10 series. You can listen to earlier podcasts here. Eric & Jonathan also talk about:

  • AI laws & regulation + the patchwork nature of AI law in the US
  • AI vacuums & AI-assisted search (see the article here)
  • Political responses to AI, including the Grok nudification scandal, TikTok separation & DeepSeek
  • Changes to US rules on patents
  • The issues with Shadow AI
  • The rise in vendor compromises & cybersecurity challenges
  • The chances of the EU Digital Omnibus passing
  • Changes to data privacy enforcement, including in Indiana, Kentucky & Rhode Island
  • How sanctions can affect the tech landscape
  • The dangers of hallucinations, aka AI lying

Resources:

There are FAQs on the EU AI Act here

A glossary of AI terms is also available here.

There’s also a summary of Italy’s new AI law here.

Our previous podcast on AI literacy is here. Jonathan talks briefly about his work on the NYSBA AI Task Force. Details can be found here.

Eric Sinrod’s details can be found here, and Jonathan Armstrong’s details are available here.

The TechLaw10 LinkedIn group is here.

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AI Today in 5

AI Today in 5: January 28, 2026, The Humanity Needs to Wake Up Edition

Welcome to AI Today in 5, the newest addition to the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, Tom Fox will bring you 5 stories about AI to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the AI Today In 5. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider five stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest about AI.

Top AI stories include:

  1. How to build a cross-functional AI team. (FastCompany)
  2. Managing AI risk with clear writing. (Reuters)
  3. ScanTech presents its compliance plan to Nasdaq. (Investing.Com)
  4. Anthropic’s chief on the dangers of AI. (FT)
  5. When AI makes the regulatory decisions. (Jenner&Block)

For more information on the use of AI in Compliance programs, my new book, Upping Your Game, is available. You can purchase a copy of the book on Amazon.com.

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Blog

The Adolescence of Technology: A Compliance Lens on Powerful AI

As reported by the Financial Times, there was an extraordinary article titled The Adolescence of Technology, posted by Anthropic head Dario Amodei, whose company is among those pushing the frontiers of the technology, which “sketched out the risks that could emerge if the technology develops unchecked—ranging from large-scale job losses to bioterrorism.”

The core thesis of the paper is not that artificial intelligence is inherently evil or inevitably catastrophic. Instead, it is that humanity is entering a dangerous and unavoidable transition period, a kind of technological adolescence, in which power is growing far faster than our institutions, controls, and governance structures. From a compliance perspective, this framing should feel very familiar. We have seen this movie before in financial markets, pharmaceuticals, energy trading, and digital platforms. Innovation races ahead, controls lag, and the bill eventually comes due.

The author’s central metaphor is drawn from Carl Sagan’s Contact. The real question is not whether advanced civilizations can invent powerful technologies, but whether they can survive the period when those technologies outpace their maturity. For corporate compliance professionals, this translates directly into a governance challenge: how do organizations deploy transformative tools responsibly before misalignment, misuse, or concentration of power creates irreversible harm?

Defining “Powerful AI” as a Governance Problem

The essay is careful to distinguish today’s AI from what it calls “powerful AI.” This is not simply better automation or smarter chatbots. Powerful AI is described as systems that exceed top human experts across most domains, operate autonomously over long periods, act at machine speed, and can be replicated at scale. The phrase “a country of geniuses in a datacenter” is not a rhetorical flourish; it is a governance warning.

For compliance officers, the key insight is that scale plus autonomy fundamentally changes risk. Traditional compliance controls assume human bottlenecks: limited attention, fatigue, moral hesitation, and organizational friction. Powerful AI removes those natural brakes. Risk does not just increase linearly; it compounds.

Avoiding Two Compliance Failure Modes: Panic and Denial

One of the essay’s strongest contributions is its rejection of extremes. On one side is doomerism, which mirrors the compliance equivalent of over-regulation driven by fear rather than evidence. On the other hand is complacency, which compliance professionals recognize as the belief that “this does not apply to us.”

The author argues for sober, evidence-based risk management. This aligns squarely with modern compliance expectations. Regulators do not reward panic, but they punish denial. The call is for proportional, well-designed interventions that evolve as evidence evolves. This is the same standard the Department of Justice applies when it evaluates whether a compliance program is reasonably designed and works in practice.

Autonomy Risk: When the System Becomes the Actor

The first major risk category is autonomy. Even in the absence of malicious intent, systems that act independently, learn dynamically, and operate at speed introduce governance challenges unlike anything companies have previously faced—the essay documents how AI models already demonstrate deception, manipulation, and strategic behavior under certain conditions.

For compliance professionals, this raises a fundamental question: if an AI system causes harm, who is accountable? Traditional models of responsibility assume human intent. Autonomous systems blur that line. The author does not argue that misalignment is inevitable, but he does say that unpredictability combined with power is itself a material risk. From a compliance perspective, this is a control design problem. You cannot manage what you cannot observe or understand.

The proposed mitigations are notable. Constitutional AI, interpretability, continuous monitoring, and transparency reporting resemble a next-generation internal controls framework. Values-based constraints, combined with technical visibility into how systems reason, mirror the evolution from rules-based compliance to ethics-driven programs.

Misuse Risk: When Capability Breaks the Motive Barrier

The second risk category should deeply concern compliance professionals: misuse for destruction. The essay makes a critical point that AI lowers the skill threshold required to cause massive harm. Historically, motive and capability rarely aligned at scale. AI threatens to erase that gap.

The most alarming application discussed is biological risk. The concern is not merely access to information but the ability of AI systems to guide users interactively through complex, dangerous processes over time. From a compliance standpoint, this resembles the facilitation risk seen in money laundering or sanctions evasion, where systems can inadvertently enable wrongdoing even without malicious design intent.

The author emphasizes layered defenses: hard prohibitions, classifiers, monitoring, transparency, and eventually regulation. This mirrors mature compliance thinking. No single control is sufficient. Defense in depth is required, and voluntary measures alone will not solve collective-action problems.

Power Concentration and Authoritarian Enablement

The third category, misuse for seizing power, moves beyond individual bad actors to systemic abuse by states and large organizations. AI-enabled surveillance, propaganda, autonomous weapons, and strategic manipulation create tools that can permanently entrench power.

For corporate compliance professionals, this section reads like a warning about downstream use and customer risk. Whom are you selling to? How might your technology be deployed? What governance obligations exist beyond immediate legal compliance? The essay is explicit that companies themselves are a risk category. Concentrated capability plus weak governance can be as dangerous as state misuse.

This is where compliance must expand its horizon. Ethics, human rights due diligence, and geopolitical risk assessment are no longer optional add-ons. They are core components of AI governance.

Economic Disruption and the Compliance Role

The fourth risk category, economic disruption, may feel less existential but is arguably more immediate for corporations. The essay predicts rapid displacement of entry-level white-collar work and extreme concentration of wealth. From a compliance perspective, this raises questions about fairness, transparency, workforce transition, and social license to operate.

Compliance professionals should note the emphasis on data. Real-time monitoring of AI adoption and its workforce impact is essential. Without credible data, governance responses will lag reality. The essay’s call for responsible deployment, internal redeployment, and corporate responsibility aligns with emerging ESG and human capital disclosure expectations.

Indirect Effects and Unknown Unknowns

The final category addresses indirect and second-order effects. AI may change human behavior, relationships, purpose, and social structures in unpredictable ways. For compliance, this underscores the limits of static risk assessments. Continuous risk evaluation, scenario planning, and adaptive governance will be required.

The Compliance Imperative

The essay concludes with a call for honesty, courage, and restraint. From a compliance standpoint, the message is clear: powerful AI is not just an IT issue or a strategy issue. It is a governance issue. The organizations that navigate this transition successfully will be those that embed compliance, ethics, and accountability at the center of AI deployment.

Five Key Takeaways for Compliance Professionals

  1. Treat powerful AI as a governance risk, not just a technology risk. Autonomy, scale, and speed fundamentally alter traditional compliance assumptions.
  2. Design layered, values-based controls. Rules alone will not scale. Principles, monitoring, and interpretability must work together.
  3. Focus on misuse pathways, not just intent. Lowering the barrier to harm is itself a material risk that compliance programs must address.
  4. Expand compliance to include downstream and societal impact. Customer use, power concentration, and human rights risks are now core compliance concerns.
  5. Build adaptive, data-driven compliance programs. Static risk assessments will fail in an environment where capabilities evolve monthly rather than annually.

Ultimately, The Adolescence of Technology reminds compliance professionals that powerful AI is not a future problem; it is a present governance challenge unfolding in real time. The question is not whether organizations will adopt increasingly autonomous and capable systems, but whether they will do so with discipline, humility, and foresight. Compliance sits at the center of that answer. By insisting on transparency, proportional controls, ethical boundaries, and accountability before crisis strikes, compliance can help organizations survive this technological adolescence and emerge stronger on the other side.

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AI Today in 5

AI Today in 5: January 27, 2026, The Ensembling AI Edition

Welcome to AI Today in 5, the newest addition to the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, Tom Fox will bring you 5 stories about AI to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the AI Today In 5. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider five stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest about AI.

Top AI stories include:

  1. Ensembling AI to improve compliance. (WSJ)
  2. Zero Trust data governance is key to preventing AI slop. (CIO)
  3. Doctors are seeing more positives from AI. (ABC News)
  4. Humans are more important in the age of AI. (FT)
  5. The major AI trends impacting KYC compliance. (FinTech Global)

For more information on the use of AI in Compliance programs, my new book, Upping Your Game, is available. You can purchase a copy of the book on Amazon.com.

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Daily Compliance News

Daily Compliance News: January 27, 2026, The Geodata Edition

Welcome to the Daily Compliance News. Each day, Tom Fox, the Voice of Compliance, brings you compliance-related stories to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the Daily Compliance News. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider four stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest for the compliance professional.

Top stories include:

  • Santander fined for AML oversights. (Bloomberg)
  • TikTok to collect precise user geo-data. (BBC)
  • DOT cancels Booz Allen contract over tax information leaks. (FT)
  • Why people matter more in the age of AI. (FT)
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AI Today in 5

AI Today in 5: January 26, 2026, The Overly Affectionate Chatbots Edition

Welcome to AI Today in 5, the newest addition to the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, Tom Fox will bring you 5 stories about AI to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the AI Today In 5. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider five stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest about AI.

Top AI stories include:

  1. The crash of Intel. (WSJ)
  2. How Americans are using AI at work. (AP)
  3. Small business use cases for AI. (Forbes)
  4. Pope Leo warns of ‘overly affectionate’ chatbots. (CNN)
  5. AI can help in KYC compliance. (FinTech Global)

For more information on the use of AI in Compliance programs, my new book, Upping Your Game, is available. You can purchase a copy of the book on Amazon.com.

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Blog

Board KPIs for AI Governance: Guidance from the ECCP

Corporate Boards are no longer asking whether their organizations will use artificial intelligence. The business has already answered that question. The only question that matters now is whether AI is being governed well enough to support growth without creating unmanaged risk.

For the corporate compliance officer, this reality creates both pressure and opportunity. Pressure, because Boards with minimal AI literacy still carry full fiduciary responsibility. Opportunity, because compliance is uniquely positioned to translate complex AI activity into oversight-ready information. The bridge between those two worlds is the right set of Board-level  Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for AI governance. Moreover, I believe the DOJ’s Evaluation of Corporate Compliance Programs (ECCP) can serve as a framework for developing appropriate KPIs for your Board.

In this blog post, we detail a set of Board-level KPIs for compliance professionals tasked with educating growth-oriented Boards on AI governance using a blended, ECCP-centric framework. It assumes that AI is already deployed across the enterprise, including generative AI, and that governance must enable innovation while enforcing guardrails.

Why Boards Need AI KPIs Now

The ECCP makes one point repeatedly and without ambiguity: regulators care less about written policies and far more about whether controls work in practice. Boards are expected to exercise oversight over risk, including emerging and technology-driven risks. AI is now firmly in that category.

AI governance KPIs are not about teaching directors how models work. They are about answering three questions every Board must be able to answer:

  1. Do we know where AI is being used?
  2. Do we control how AI changes over time?
  3. Can we detect, respond to, and remediate AI-related harm quickly?

If a Board cannot answer those questions with evidence, not narrative reassurance, the organization is exposed. The role of compliance is to ensure those answers are delivered in a form that directors can understand and act upon.

The KPI Philosophy: Enablement With Guardrails

Because this is a growth-oriented Board, the goal is not to slow AI adoption. The goal is to make AI scalable, defensible, and sustainable. KPIs must therefore do three things simultaneously:

  • Demonstrate coverage and control without micromanagement
  • Surface risk early, before incidents become enforcement events
  • Support informed decision-making, not technical debate

This means Boards should receive KPIs, escalation triggers, and narrative context. Numbers alone are insufficient. Context without metrics is worse.

Six Board-Level KPIs for AI Governance

The following six KPIs apply to all AI systems, including generative AI, within a unified governance framework. They are evidence-based, auditable, and aligned with the ECCP expectations for testing, monitoring, and continuous improvement.

1. Risk Inventory Coverage

This KPI measures the percentage of in-scope AI systems with a current, signed risk record documenting use case, data sources, impacts, potential harms, and safeguards. If AI is operating outside the risk inventory, it is operating outside governance. This KPI answers the most basic oversight question: do we know what we have? Any material AI system without a documented risk assessment or with an expired review date should be escalated for review.

The ECCP begins with risk assessment for a reason. Under the ECCP, they are directed to consider whether a company has identified and prioritized its risks, including emerging risks. AI, particularly GenAI, now squarely fits within that expectation. Risk Inventory Coverage directly answers the ECCP question: “What methodology has the company used to identify, analyze, and address the particular risks it faces? ” If AI systems are operating without a documented risk record, the program fails at step one. From an ECCP perspective, undocumented AI use is indistinguishable from unmanaged risk.

2. Model Change Control Adherence

This measures the percentage of AI model changes, including code, data, prompts, parameters, or vendors, that followed the approved change management process. Uncontrolled change is the fastest way for compliant AI to become noncompliant. This KPI assures directors that innovation is disciplined, not chaotic. Any production AI change implemented without pre-deployment testing, approval, or rollback capability should be escalated for review.

ECCP Alignment:

The ECCP explicitly evaluates whether policies are followed in practice, not merely written. Adherence to change control shows whether AI governance has real authority over business and technology decisions. Unapproved model changes undermine every safeguard the company believes it has in place. From the DOJ’s perspective, a control that can be bypassed without consequence is not a control. For your Board, this KPI demonstrates that AI innovation is disciplined and governed, not uncontrolled experimentation that creates hidden compliance exposure.

3. Model Lineage and Provenance Completeness

This KPI measures the percentage of AI systems with end-to-end traceability, enabling the reconstruction of how outputs were generated and decisions were approved. When something goes wrong, regulators and plaintiffs will ask how the AI reached its decision. This KPI determines whether the company can answer. Any high-impact AI system lacking sufficient documentation to support root cause analysis should be escalated for review.

This KPI is derived from the ECCP sections on Continuous Improvement, Periodic Testing, and Review, as well as Investigation, Analysis, and Remediation of Misconduct. The ECCP asks whether a company can understand why something went wrong and conduct effective root cause analysis. Without lineage and provenance, AI decisions cannot be reconstructed, tested, or explained. This KPI directly supports DOJ’s expectation that companies can investigate incidents, identify systemic weaknesses, and remediate effectively. For your Board, this KPI determines whether the organization can defend its AI decisions after the fact or whether it will be forced into speculation and guesswork.

4. Third-Party Model Assurance Coverage

This KPI measures the percentage of third-party AI tools and services that have completed due diligence, contractual controls, and periodic reassessment. Most AI risk now enters organizations through vendors. Boards must know whether those risks are being actively managed. Any use of third-party AI without completion of onboarding or with unresolved high-risk findings should be escalated for review.

This ties to the ECCP section around Third-Party Management. The ECCP is unambiguous on third parties. Companies are expected to conduct risk-based due diligence, impose contractual controls, and monitor third-party performance over time. Most AI risk now enters through vendors, platforms, APIs, and embedded models. Treating third-party AI differently from other third-party risks would be inconsistent with DOJ guidance. For your Board, this KPI shows that AI vendor risk is governed with the same rigor as bribery, sanctions, or data security risks.

5. AI Incident Mean Time to Resolution (MTTR)

This KPI measures the median time from detection of an AI incident to containment and recovery. Incidents are inevitable. What matters is how fast the organization responds. This KPI demonstrates operational resilience. Repeated incidents with increasing resolution times or incomplete remediation should be escalated.

This ties to the ECCP sections on Investigation, Analysis, and Remediation of Misconduct. The ECCP focuses heavily on how quickly and effectively companies respond to detected issues. Speed matters. Delayed containment signals weak controls and inadequate monitoring. AI Incident MTTR translates this expectation into a measurable operational outcome. It demonstrates whether the company can detect, contain, and remediate AI-related harm before it escalates into regulatory or reputational damage. For your Board, the key takeaway is that this KPI demonstrates operational resilience and governance maturity, not merely technical incident response.

6. Fairness and Robustness Pass Rate

This KPI measures the percentage of AI systems passing predefined fairness, bias, and robustness tests across relevant segments and use cases. It connects AI governance to ethical outcomes and reputational risk. Any material AI system deployed with known fairness or robustness failures should be escalated for review.

This ties to the ECCP sections on Continuous Improvement, Periodic Testing, and Review. The ECCP repeatedly asks whether companies test their controls and whether those controls work in practice. Fairness and robustness testing is the AI equivalent of transaction testing in anti-corruption or sanctions compliance. This KPI shows that AI systems are not only reviewed at launch but are continuously validated against defined risk thresholds. For your Board, the key takeaway is that this KPI demonstrates that ethical and legal AI commitments are enforced through testing, not slogans.

Board Oversight Questions Tied to AI KPIs

To close, here are Board-level questions compliance officers should encourage directors to ask:

  1. Which AI systems fall outside our current risk inventory, and why?
  2. Where have we accepted AI risk, and what safeguards justify that decision?
  3. Are AI changes happening faster than our governance can keep up with?
  4. How quickly can we detect and contain AI-related harm?
  5. Which third-party AI risks would cause us to pause or exit a deployment?
  6. How do these KPIs support growth rather than restrict it?

AI governance KPIs are not about slowing innovation. They are about making growth durable. For compliance professionals, delivering these metrics in a clear, disciplined, and Board-ready way is how AI governance becomes a strategic asset rather than a regulatory afterthought.

If you would like specific KPIs based on this blog, go over and subscribe to my Substack. At this point, it is free. Check it out here.

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AI Today in 5

AI Today in 5: January 23, 2026, The Greatest AI Challenge Edition

Welcome to AI Today in 5, the newest addition to the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, Tom Fox will bring you 5 stories about AI to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the AI Today In 5. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider five stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest about AI.

Top AI stories include:

  • South Korea adds new AI regulations. (Reuters)
  • Vietnam updates IP & AI law. (Rouse)
  • AI’s greatest challenge is managerial, not technical. (Bloomberg)
  • With AI, compliance data is more valuable than ever. (FinTechGlobal)
  • AI assists retailers in stopping return fraud. (CBS News)

For more information on the use of AI in Compliance programs, my new book, Upping Your Game, is available. You can purchase a copy of the book on Amazon.com.

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Daily Compliance News

Daily Compliance News: January 23, 2026, The Lying Liars Who Lie Edition

Welcome to the Daily Compliance News. Each day, Tom Fox, the Voice of Compliance, brings you compliance-related stories to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the Daily Compliance News. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider four stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest for the compliance professional.

Top stories include:

  • FirstEnergy’s reputation for telling the truth is still trashed. (Cleveland.com)
  • The black box of AI hiring decisions. (NYT)
  • Supreme Court balks at Trump’s attempt to control the Fed. (WSJ)
  • What happens when the dog bites (or even eats) its tail? (FT)
Categories
Daily Compliance News

Daily Compliance News: January 22, 2026, The Compliance Officers Fired Edition

Welcome to the Daily Compliance News. Each day, Tom Fox, the Voice of Compliance, brings you compliance-related stories to start your day. Sit back, enjoy a cup of morning coffee, and listen in to the Daily Compliance News. All, from the Compliance Podcast Network. Each day, we consider four stories from the business world, compliance, ethics, risk management, leadership, or general interest for the compliance professional.

Top stories include:

  • Malaysia charges 2 top military officers with corruption. (Reuters)
  • WH backs off from controlling the new DOJ Fraud Division. (BloombergLaw)
  • CEOs say AI is working; employees are not so sure. (WSJ)
  • Compliance officers fired over trader terminations. (Bloomberg)